Expectations were low for sportswear giant Nike ahead of its fiscal first-quarter earnings report, but guidance issued late Thursday still managed to disappoint investors. It's the latest evidence that the plodding pace of the company's turnaround remains an obstacle for the stock.
The quarterly earnings were actually mixed, with Nike reporting it earned 44 cents a share on revenue of $11.21 billion. Consensus called for Nike to earn 44 cents, a nickel less than it did in the year-ago period, on a 3.4% decline in revenue to $11.3 billion.
Nike brand revenue fell 4% to $11 billion in the quarter on a constant-currency basis; North America was a bright spot but sales elsewhere sagged. Converse revenue tumbled 28% to $263 million, with declines across regions.
Its fiscal-year forecast was downbeat. Nike expects to earn between $1.15 and $1.35 a share, compared with the $1.67 analysts were predicting. It expects revenue to decline in the high-single digit range, a steeper drop off than analysts had been predicting.
Shares of Nike were down 7.1% to $32.60 in premarket trading Friday, hitting their lowest levels since 2013, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock was off more than 4% after hours Thursday following the report.
It looks like the bears were right: Shares sold short stood at over 87 million just before the report, a record high, according to S3 Partners Managing Director Matthew Unterman. Short exposure increased by 55 million shares over the past 52 weeks, meaning short interest as a percentage of the float has gone from below 3% to above 7%.
Including guidance in the report was itself "a major improvement," as Baird analyst Jonathan Komp noted, and could help reset Wall Street's expectations (again) to more reasonable levels. Nonetheless, it shows how long it takes to right a ship the size of Nike, given the length of product cycles.
"While the turnaround will take time, improving profitability and North American momentum support our view that progress is on track," writes Jefferies analyst Randal Konik, while admitting its recovery "remains uneven."
Still that's cold comfort to investors who have weathered a nearly 80% decline from the stock's pandemic-era peak: Even before Thursday's report, shares of Nike had fallen 44.4% this year alone, and lost more than half of their value over the past 12 months, hitting their lowest levels in more than a decade this summer.
Analysts have soured on its bumpy comeback, as new leadership changes and a lackluster World Cup bump have yet to bear fruit.
The stock dropped after its previous earnings report, at the start of July.
Sales of sneakers and other athletic gear have been difficult lately, but Nike in particular has suffered: New product launches haven't garnered much excitement and it lacks the star power like that of Michael Jordan in its heyday. Fashion has been shifting back toward dressier styles, and competition has grown. Just over a quarter of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet are bullish on the shares.