超强厄尔尼诺如何传导至棕榈油市场:先看产地政策与库存,再看减产兑现

同花顺
Oct 01

11月前后,赤道中东太平洋(601099)海温指数峰值预计达到3.2℃至3.5℃,中国气象局国家气候中心称其可能成为有监测记录以来最强的超强厄尔尼诺事件。市场真正关心的却不是海温能否刷新纪录,而是一个更具体的问题:这次气候异常,何时会转化为棕榈油的实际减产,又会先影响哪一个价格期限?答案可能不是“海温达峰、产量立刻下降”。棕榈油的天气交易,核心在于产量传导存在时间差。干旱首先影响土壤墒情和油棕生长...

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