美元创3月以来最佳月度表现 美联储抗通胀立场推高加息预期

格隆汇
Oct 01
美元指数9月累计上涨近2%,创3月以来最佳月度表现。美联储重新将政策重点放在抑制通胀上,推动市场加息预期及美债收益率走高,为美元提供支撑。尽管最新PCE通胀低于预期,令交易员降低10月加息预期,但市场已完全计价12月加息,并预计未来12个月美联储累计收紧约90个基点。美联储官员近期也持续释放鹰派信号,纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称今年晚些时候再加息一次“可能是合适的”。与此同时,美国经济数据保持强劲,伊朗战争推高能源价格并加剧通胀风险,30年期美债收益率本周升至2002年以来最高。9月除日元外,其余G10货币均对美元下跌。不过,部分技术指标显示美元涨势可能开始过度延伸,动量指标已进入超买区域。

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