Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
3 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2018 ET - Japanese stocks are lower following Thursday's sharp gains as concerns about higher energy costs continue. Tech, auto and pharmaceutical stocks are leading declines. SoftBank Group is down 3.6%, Honda Motor is 1.8% lower and Chugai Pharmaceutical is down 2.4%. The dollar is at 157.81 yen, compared with Y158.27 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Iran conflict, crude oil prices and bond yields. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 1.0% at 68263.52. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

2017 ET - JGBs rise in early Tokyo trade, tracking overnight price gains in U.S. Treasurys amid reduced Fed rate-hike prospects. JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said the U.S. central bank may need 'more time' to decide on next move even as inflation risks are tilted to upside, InTouch Capital Markets' analysts say in commentary. "Money markets have removed as much as 13.5 [bps] of expected tightening by the middle of next year," the analysts note. The ten-year JGB yield falls 4.5 bps to 3.050% and the 30-year yield drops 4 bps to 4.130%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)Canadian housing affordability is hard to solve, not because no one has tried and not because the problem is poorly understood, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Gov. Carolyn Rogers says. "Central Banks Can Offer Housing Markets Price Stability -- Market Talk," at 3:36 p.m. ET, incorrectly said the problem is poorly understood.

1946 ET - Japanese stocks may decline following Thursday's sharp gains as concerns about higher energy costs continue. However, easing expectations for the Fed's further rate increases may provide support. Nikkei futures are down 0.7% at 68385 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.87 yen, compared with Y158.27 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Iran conflict, crude oil prices and bond yields after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is sending a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 3.3% to 68956.72 on Thursday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1934 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar but may be weighed by higher oil prices which typically hurt currencies of net energy-importing countries in Asia. Higher crude prices amid ongoing geopolitical risks have supported the dollar, CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. "According to a U.S. official, the Pentagon may soon deploy an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf," the international economist and currency strategist notes. "The move would give U.S. commanders more options should President Trump choose to escalate attacks on Iran," Hammoud adds. The dollar edges 0.1% higher to 1,360.09 won, but is 0.1% lower at 157.86 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1850 ET [Dow Jones]--According to U.S. officials, the Pentagon may soon deploy an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. The move would give U.S. commanders more options should President Trump choose to escalate attacks on Iran. CBA market strategist Samara Hammoud assigns just a 15% probability to a major U.S. escalation that returns the conflict to the intensity seen in March. Constraints on military resources, including missile stockpiles, make such an outcome less likely, she says. Iran could also respond with broad attacks on energy and other economic infrastructure across the region, which should further deter escalation, she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1833 ET [Dow Jones]--Recent data reinforce that U.S. economic momentum is accelerating and becoming increasingly broad-based. It is posing crucial questions for the Federal Reserve. This week, data have revealed solid growth in manufacturing and construction, typically interest-rate sensitive sectors, says ANZ in a note to clients. The U.S. consumer is also likely in better health than previously thought. Continued signs of strengthening demand pose a challenge to policymakers' assessment that the stance of monetary policy remains restrictive and suggests that the neutral rate is rising, ANZ adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1820 ET - Transurban's A$4.5 billion acquisition of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's stake in companies that own the Westlink M7, NorthConnex and WestConnex highways in Sydney could have implications for its distribution, suggests Jefferies. The deal is likely to be beneficial over the longer term, analyst Anthony Moulder says. He notes the price paid is largely in-line with 2027 valuations. "However, this acquisition is expected to be a small drag to distribution growth in FY28 and likely FY29," Jefferies says. It retains a hold call on Transurban's stock. "Trading on a FY27 yield of 5.4%, we continue to await a more attractive entry point," Jefferies says. Transurban ended Thursday at A$13.01.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1709 ET - Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook said that inflationary pressures tied to the AI buildout are at the top of her list of risks for 2027, as it's unknown when price pressures may resolve. "I worry about when the productivity gains that would produce disinflation will come, and where the supply bottlenecks are going to be next," Cook said in a moderated discussion with New York Fed president John Williams. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1620 ET - Treasury yields fall ahead of September's U.S. jobs report, which is expected to bolster the case for a slower pace of monetary tightening. Economists surveyed by WSJ forecast job creation slowing to 84,000 from 162,000. The Treasury buys back $6 billion in long-term bonds, exceeding previous operations' amounts. A flight for safety boosts demand for German bunds and U.S. Treasurys, weakening yields, as investors ditch debt from highly indebted European governments. Borrowing costs, however, remain close to multidecade highs. The 10-year Treasury yield slips 0.059 percentage point, snapping a seven-day rising streak, to 5.233%. The two-year drops 0.1 point to 4.785%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1536 ET - Canadian housing affordability is hard to solve, not because no one has tried and not because the problem is poorly understood, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Gov. Carolyn Rogers says. In a speech, Rogers says regulation can make markets fairer, strengthen borrowers and banks and help the financial system absorb shocks, but it can't restore affordability. For central banks, the best contribution is price stability, she adds. Low, stable and predictable inflation gives households, businesses, builders and governments a better foundation for decision-making. "Housing must remain an important input into monetary policy decisions, but targeting house prices directly with interest rates would ask monetary policy to do more than it can reasonably do." (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart) Corrections & Amplifications

This market talk item was corrected at 0003 GMT to reflect Canadian housing affordability is hard to solve, not because no one has tried and not because the problem is poorly understood, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Gov. Carolyn Rogers says. The original version incorrectly said the problem is poorly understood in the first sentence of the blurb.

1528 ET - The U.S. Treasury buys back its full $6 billion target in outstanding 10- to 20-year bonds. Two issues maturing in 2041 and 2042 were accepted, out of 41 eligible. It is the first time the department hits the maximum amount announced since Secretary Bessent said in August that it would increase long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion from the usual $2 billion. In two previous operations aiming at $6 billion, the Treasury ended up accepting $5.2 billion (10- to 20-year tenors) and $4.1 billion (20- to 30-year). The increased buyback aims to support liquidity.

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