More spending on missiles and defense systems is barely moving the stocks. It's an odd situation that could end in a few more weeks.
On Thursday, RTX landed a $24.4 billion multi-year Defense Department contract for SM-6 interceptor missiles, which can intercept aircraft, ballistic missiles, or hit enemy targets.
In Friday morning trading, RTX stock was off 0.5% at $184.02. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up-1% and 0.6%, respectively.
For RTX, a contract win is the normal course of business, but there isn't anything normal about the scale of missile acquisition in the U.S. The Pentagon is spending billions to dramatically increase missile production, offering increased revenue and growth for the sector.
Still, RTX stock is down about 9% since the start of the Iran War in late February. And RTX isn't alone. The iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF was down 15%. The S&P 500 is up about 11%.
Investors are clearly worried that defense spending growth will decelerate, mainly because of budgetary pressures and Washington gridlock if the Democrats take back control of the House in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
On Friday, Northrop Grumman was down 0.9% after RBC analyst Ken Herbert downgraded shares to Hold from Buy. He cut his price target to $525 from $640.
Downgrades and upgrades, of course, happen every day. But the downgrade of Northrop comes came when the stock is trading at 16 times earnings expected over the coming 12 months. That's its lowest PE ratio in the past year. That's the over the past year. Over time, Northrop stock has traded at closer to a market multiple.
Still, Herbert is "incrementally cautious on the defense backdrop," despite Northrop having an "attractive portfolio." Northrop makes space, drone, and missile tech.
Incremental caution means that Herbert believes Northrop stock should trade for about 17 times earnings, instead of 21 times.
Citi analyst John Godyn believes that defense shares could catch a bid after the midterm elections. The Democrats might win the House, but at least investors will know the outcome. Less uncertainty is typically good for stocks.