金吾财讯 | 美国银行在最新发布的大宗商品展望报告中发出预警，称受中东冲突及高能价冲击，金价在第四季度面临回调风险，可能下探至每盎司3,750美元。美国银行分析指出，地缘政治局势持续紧张正通过双重渠道给黄金带来下行压力：一方面，若冲突推动油价升至每桶150美元，将推高全球通胀，美银预计2027年黄金均价或降至3,500美元；另一方面，能源价格持续高企可能逼迫部分受影响国家的央行抛售黄金储备，以支撑本国货币和宏观经济。美银提醒，当前市场对黄金的看涨情绪脆弱，若中东局势未出现实质性缓和，交易员头寸的快速调整可能迅速转换为对金价的下行压力。短线上，市场情绪略受宏观数据提振。随着美国8月通胀增幅低于预期，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）FedWatch工具显示，市场对美联储10月加息的预期概率已由之前的45%降至31%。美债收益率与美元的短线上涨虽限制了金价涨幅，但短期内市场仍密切关注地缘局势与央行购金动向。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.