France's Bond Rout Worsens

Dow Jones
Yesterday

France is in the eye of the storm. Pressure on its government debt intensified today, rippling across European markets, as investors worry about its mounting debt:

-- France's 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.96%, on track for its highest closing value since 2002.

-- A closely watched barometer of financial stress climbed to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis. The difference, or spread, between France and Germany's benchmark yields jumped to 1.3 percentage point.

-- The selling spilled over onto other markets. France's benchmark equity index fell 1.6%, led by French banks. Other European government bonds also sold off, with financially-vulnerable countries like Italy and Greece hit particularly hard.

-- The euro slid 0.3% against the dollar. Normally, higher yields would support the currency.

"[The selloff] is a lot about concern over France," said Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies in London. "The problem is that there is a buyers strike."

The French government is expected to present its 2027 budget today. Investors are skeptical that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will be able to fulfill promises to cut spending amid political gridlock.

The country's finances have been worsening. Last month, the government revised higher its deficit forecast for this year, with higher interest rates and the war in Iran pressuring the economy. The government's debt agency this week said it plans to borrow a record $380 billion next year.

Kumar said today's European rout is in part a catchup to the bond selloff in yesterday's U.S. session. But investors, particularly Asian investors who have been large buyers of French bonds, are also staying away from France ahead of the election.

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