11月前后,赤道中东太平洋(601099)海温指数预计升至3.2℃至3.5℃,中国气象局国家气候中心判断,这可能成为有监测记录以来最强的超强厄尔尼诺事件。海温是否创纪录,并不是橡胶市场最需要回答的问题。真正的问题是:这次气候异常,能否转化为东南亚主产区的有效减产,并通过现货、库存和轮胎需求传导到价格?答案不能简单概括为“厄尔尼诺利多橡胶”。对天然橡胶而言,天气决定短期波动,产能决定供给弹性,库存则...
Source Link11月前后,赤道中东太平洋(601099)海温指数预计升至3.2℃至3.5℃,中国气象局国家气候中心判断,这可能成为有监测记录以来最强的超强厄尔尼诺事件。海温是否创纪录,并不是橡胶市场最需要回答的问题。真正的问题是:这次气候异常,能否转化为东南亚主产区的有效减产,并通过现货、库存和轮胎需求传导到价格?答案不能简单概括为“厄尔尼诺利多橡胶”。对天然橡胶而言,天气决定短期波动,产能决定供给弹性,库存则...
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