Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1918 ET - A more than 20% fall in the share price of Imricor Medical Systems since it entered the ASX 300 index in early September creates a great buying opportunity for investors, according to its bull at Morgans. Imricor ended Wednesday at A$1.585, having traded as high as A$2.07 in August. Morgans suggests seasonal weakness and rising interest rates may have contributed to the share-price fall. Recent news flow has been positive. "As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year, together with our view that material news flow (NorthStar orders, submit clinical data, FDA approval) is expected, we believe the share price should move back over A$2.00," Morgans' analyst Scott Power says. Morgans has a speculative buy call on Imricor. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1851 ET - The slump in Australian home prices continued in September with prices down 1.1% according to property research group Cotality. Capital city prices fell 1.2% and previous months were revised to show bigger falls. Further falls are likely as home prices are being hit by a perfect storm of rate hikes, tax hikes on investors, poor confidence and poor affordability depressing demand, with a high risk of distressed sales flowing from higher mortgage rates and unemployment, says Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital. AMP now expects national average property prices to have a top to bottom fall in prices of 10% to 15%, of which they have done 5.2% so far. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1815 ET - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says consumer sentiment data is proving less useful for the Fed's forecasting as it continues to split further from what consumer spending data shows. "We're experiencing record divergence between the vibe and the hard data," Goolsbee says while delivering remarks in Chicago. The factors driving that divide include higher gas prices and food prices, which have high visibility and an outsize impact on sentiment, he says. People are also becoming less trusting in public institutions, including the Fed, Goolsbee says. That weak sentiment data is still important in a lot of applications, just not the Fed's "very narrow" purpose of balancing stable prices with maximum employment, he says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1802 ET - The Australian dollar continues its downward trend, falling by 0.5% in U.S. trading to around 69.50 US cents. A stronger U.S. dollar and weaker European and U.S. equities weighed on the pair.Less hawkish than expected policy meeting communication from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday and a slightly weaker August CPI data have caused markets to reduce RBA interest rate hike expectations, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA.Markets are now pricing only a 20% chance of a November increase, she adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1801 ET - Bond markets remain under pressure, most notably at the longer end of the U.S. Treasury curve where yields continue to rise. The U.S. 10-year is trading near an intraday high of 5.30% and the 30-year at 5.64%, says NAB in a note to clients. The U.S. 30-year rose 40 basis points in September, and the 10-year was up by 55 basis points. For now, the repricing can be described as somewhat orderly, as it has coincided with a meaningful shift in Fed expectations, NAB adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1733 ET - The yield on the U.S. 10-year bond has moved to a fresh post-2007 high of 5.301%. The market price action suggests investors are trading with more of a "sell rallies" than "buy dips" mindset, says ANZ in a note to clients. Caution remains warranted as the bond rout continues and New Zealand rates will be biased higher in the coming session, it adds. Spreads to U.S. bonds are moving further into negative territory, consistent with the better relative fiscal outlook in New Zealand, it adds. That is resulting in local yields rising more slowly rather than bucking the global trend and falling, ANZ says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1559 ET - Treasury yields reverse a flimsy decline caused by relatively mild inflation data to end a volatile quarter. Yields rose by nearly a full percentage point in the longer end, as markets furiously repriced expectations of a Fed hike amid rising government spending. The 10-year benchmark adds 0.872 percentage point in the past three months, most of it in September, to 5.292%, its highest settlement since May 2002. The 30-year also sets new 24-year highs and ends the quarter at 5.638%. The two-year rises 0.747 points in the 3Q, its highest quarterly increase since 2023, to 4.885%. Weekly jobless claims are expected to increase to 200,000 from 197,000. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1240 ET - Higher mortgage rates are reshaping the fall housing market, Realtor.com says, pushing more sellers to reduce prices while fewer buyers move forward with a purchase. The share of active listings with a price reduction rose to 20.8% in September, up 0.9 percentage points from a year earlier. Active inventory grew 5.4% year over year to almost 1.2M homes. The stock of homes under contract declined 4.1%. September's data shows that buyers are gaining leverage, but higher mortgage rates are limiting how much of that opportunity they can use, Realtor.com says. The national median list price was $419,250 in September, down 1.2% from August and 1.4% from a year ago. Homes spent a median of 61 days on the market--one day longer than in August but one day fewer than a year earlier, Realtor.com says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1154 ET - Bitcoin is set to close out the third quarter with a small gain -- rising 0.8% to $84,226. It has gained over 40% this quarter, making it the strongest quarter for bitcoin since 4Q 2024. But the fuel for this big jump may be limited, at least for now, says analysts for Bitfinex in a note. "With leverage substantially reduced, the next sustained move will need to be led by the spot market," says the firm. Buyers appear willing to buy bitcoin in its current area of around $85,000, but the underlying that appetite for bitcoin among retail investors is buying by fund investors - with inflows recorded for bitcoin ETFs for nine consecutive days, according to data from Coinglass. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1115 ET - The Bureau of Economic Analysis's annual benchmark revisions lowered the Fed's preferred inflation measure more than anticipated, even if inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target, BMO analysts say in a research note. August's core-PCE gain was softer than expected and slowed to 3% year-over-year, below the 3.3% consensus and the Fed's own estimates of 3.2%, the analysts say. At the same time, the economy is still expanding and private hiring remains steady, they say. That, plus the downward revision in inflation, removes some of the immediate urgency for another rate hike in October, the analysts say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1109 ET - Soaring government bond yields, which translate to high borrowing costs, could weigh on corporates in the foreseeable future, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. For now, debt servicing costs remain manageable because companies still hold bonds issued in the past at lower coupons, he says. The cost of debt is likely to rise further as bonds maturing are replaced by bonds with higher coupons, Valencia says. "The rising sovereign bond yields means that the cost of funding is getting more onerous for companies and banks," he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1052 ET - Revised economic-growth data presents another solid first-half performance for the British economy, Investec's Sandra Horsfield says in a note. The U.K.'s data office revised up second-quarter GDP growth to 0.5%, from 0.4% previously reported. The revision is mainly due to firmer services growth, as professional, scientific and technical activities jumped by 2.3%. However, the post-pandemic pattern of strong growth in the first half of the year followed by a weaker performance in the second is set stay firmly in place, Horsefield says. Momentum could cool in the second half, not only on fiscal uncertainty similar to recent years, but also as the rise in wholesale energy prices increasingly filters through to bite households and firms, she says.

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