三大存储原厂产能已被提前锁定 大摩估算英伟达已锁定2027年全球约37.3%的HBM供应

格隆汇
Yesterday
据快科技,摩根士丹利最新估算,英伟达已锁定2027年全球约37.3% 的高带宽内存(HBM)供应,其长期供应承诺金额从上一季度的1190亿美元飙升至2790亿美元(约合人民币1.87万亿元)。英伟达的供应承诺并非均匀分布。据财报披露,约920亿美元将在2027财年剩余时间到期,2028和2029财年分别到期870亿美元和880亿美元。 HBM4单GB成本已从HBM3e时代的17至18美元跳升至31至32美元,接近翻倍。伯恩斯坦预测,2027年HBM4定价可能进一步攀升至每GB 53美元,瑞银估算2027年HBM整体均价将较2026年上涨约79%。 需要指出的是,三大存储原厂产能已被提前锁定。美光CEO桑杰·梅赫罗特拉在10月1日财报会上明确表示,2027年大部分HBM供应已提前签订协议,目前看不到供需恢复平衡的拐点。三星同样表示客户已将2027年需求提前预订,供需缺口将比2026年进一步扩大。

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