The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0939 ET - The European Central Bank's September rate increase had broad support according to minutes of the meeting, Carsten Brzeski at ING says in a note. However, the discussion was more balanced than ECB President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting comments suggested, meaning an October hike looks unlikely, he says. Some officials noted that the energy shock could be less persistent than assumed, while others questioned the narrative that the economy was proving resilient to the energy shock. Meanwhile rising bond yields are adding to opinions that a hike may be unnecessary, Brzeski adds. "With bond markets doing the ECB's job, some officials might be less keen to continue hiking than they were at the September meeting." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0936 ET - Further euro weakness looks likely but bets against the single currency are probably best expressed against the Australian dollar and Swiss franc, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. French debt concerns have weighed on the euro via increased risk premium and lower European Central Bank interest-rate rise expectations, they say. Morgan Stanley recommends selling the euro versus the high-yielding Australia dollar with a target of 1.53 and stop loss of 1.69. It also advises selling the euro versus the safe-haven franc with a target of 0.90 and stop loss of 0.96 to help investors hedge for potential further regional volatility. The euro rises 0.2% to 1.6112 Australian dollars and is steady at 0.9331 francs.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0934 ET - The Romanian leu could weaken further after reaching record lows against the euro recently, Raiffeisen Research analysts say in a note. Romania has failed to form a new government following the May collapse of the previous cabinet. However, a new government should be sworn in soon and it is likely to secure sufficient parliamentary support to continue the fiscal consolidation process, the analysts say. "However, these supportive factors are offset by Romania's sizeable macroeconomic imbalances, which, in our view, continue to argue for a gradual depreciation of the leu in the near-term." The euro falls 5.3440 leu after reaching a record high of 5.3550 on Friday, LSEG data show. Raiffeisen expects it to reach 5.40 by year-end. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0847 ET - U.S. Treasury yields hover near multiyear highs as investors monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials and an auction of 30-year bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield currently hovers at 5.324% and rose as high as 5.353%. The 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.820% Thursday and currently hovers around 4.812%. Fed governor Christopher Waller said he could see additional rate increases ahead, but noted flexibility on when they could occur. The 30-year Treasury yield hovers around 5.696%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0846 ET - The Czech koruna could extend recent declines if the dollar maintains its strength, Raiffeisen Research's Martin Kron says in a note. Risk aversion and expectations of higher U.S. interest-rate rises have supported the dollar, pushing the euro above 24.40 koruna, he says. "The interest rate advantage should stay positive for the koruna, but it may narrow, as we expect one more rate hike from the European Central Bank, while the Czech National Bank is unlikely to raise rates further." Raiffeisen raises its forecast for the euro to 24.30 koruna by year-end but sees risks skewed towards a weaker koruna. The euro trades flat at 24.404 koruna, having reached a near six-month high of 24.488 last week, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0841 ET - Political instability and rising debt costs in Europe leave the euro vulnerable to further falls, XS.com's Simon-Peter Massabni says in a note. European fiscal stability faces growing headwinds as the WSJ reports that France is considering issuing more short-term debt after foreign investors showed reluctance to hold longer-dated paper, he says. The report "indicates that market participants fear deep political paralysis in Paris will prevent the government from executing necessary public spending cuts," he says. Persistent energy inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict also weigh on the euro, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1184, having hit $1.1160 on Monday, its lowest level in more than 16 months, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0757 ET - Two down and one to go. After this week's successful auctions of 3-year and 10-year notes, $22 billion in 30-year bonds is set to be auctioned today. Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment Strategist for Allianz Investment Management, says the 30-year bond reopening should act as another litmus test for investor demand for duration and if the auction goes anything like the 10-year auction, it should be well received. Ripley called the 10-year auction results "unambiguously strong across the board." He says, "The auction cleared 1.8 basis points through the pre-auction yield with strong bid to cover and strong absorption by end investors with non-dealer bidding of 97.5%. With dealer takedown of 2.5% the market should feel some comfort that dip-buyers are beginning to emerge." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

0731 ET - The economy likely contracted 0.1% in August as some of June and July's strong growth unwound, but this shouldn't obscure broader resilience, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says in a note. "Growth has averaged 0.5% per quarter this year, and the economy remains on course to expand by around 0.4% to 0.5% in 3Q," he says. Industrial production likely stagnated in August, while construction and services output are expected to decline. Still, AI adoption should support IT and other key sectors. Looking ahead, rising inflation, higher interest rates and a weakening labor market are likely to slow growth sharply in the fourth quarter and into 2027, he adds. "Firms will have to contend with a softer demand backdrop." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0729 ET - Bitcoin is increasingly competing with other asset classes for a place in diversified long-term portfolios, which changes how its recent decline should be interpreted, says Maksym Sakharov of WeFi. "This represents a different way of valuing the asset than in previous cycles because the discussion gradually shifts from whether bitcoin belongs in a portfolio to how much exposure it deserves relative to every other asset competing for long-term capital," he says. Sakharov adds bitcoin's mainstreaming doesn't make it immune to macroeconomic conditions or changes in investor sentiment, however. Bitcoin is down 1.2% at $82,422. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

0659 ET - The crypto-friendly Clarity Act is unlikely to pass into law in the U.S. this year, JPMorgan analysts write. "With both chambers of Congress now out of session ahead of the 2026 midterms, we think passage of crypto legislation in this Congress through December 31 is unlikely," they say. Even Democrats who had been active in crafting the bill voted against it in the Senate, they note. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0645 ET - The market capitalization of the crypto ecosystem rose to around $2.84 trillion in September, its highest level since January this year, JPMorgan analysts say. Prices moved more quickly and dramatically in September, raising investor activity, they say. September trading volumes increased on-month, though short-term momentum wasn't enough for average daily volumes to reach highs from the second quarter of 2026. Ether outperformed bitcoin over the month, while alt coins outpaced both, they note. Bitcoin falls 0.9% to $82,669.99, while ether drops 0.85% to $2,552.21.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0624 ET - Eurozone inflation beat expectations in September but this likely won't be enough to sway the European Central Bank into raising rates just yet, Ebury's Matthew Ryan says in a note. A hike in December remains in the cards, however. Policymakers are becoming increasingly vocal that higher yields should limit the need for central bank hikes, he says. The selloff in bonds acts to tighten financial conditions by pushing up mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. "[ECB President Christine] Lagarde said as much last week, arguing that the notable rise in long-term rates since the September meeting will slow growth and ease the pass-through of energy costs to inflation," Ryan says. Investors rank about an 80% chance of an ECB hike in December, LSEG data shows.