金吾财讯 | 摩根士丹利（MS）针对星座品牌（STZ）发布研报表示，公司第二季度业绩超出预期，受益于出货量与利润率表现，但啤酒终端需求依旧疲软。公司可比每股收益3.74美元，高于摩根士丹利3.57美元的预期；啤酒出货量受经销商补库推动增长5.5%，不过啤酒实际消费量同比下滑0.6%。分品牌看，Modelo Especial、Corona Extra实际消费量分别下降2%、5%，Pacifico、Victoria以及Modelo Chelada则实现销量增长。分析师Patty Kanada指出，星座品牌重申的2027财年指引显示，下半年啤酒营业利润率区间为34.5%-35.5%，低于机构35.5%的一致预期，即便二季度业绩亮眼，该指引或引发市场对2028财年利润率的担忧。摩根士丹利维持该股“持股观望”评级，目标价158美元；机构认为酒精消费面临健康消费趋势、人口结构变化、调味酒精饮料及大麻产品竞争等多重结构性压力。另外，星座品牌收购SpikedAde，交易包含7500万美元预付款，最高或支付2.78亿美元或有对价，分析师认为交易结构能够控制潜在风险。
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