金吾财讯 | TrendForce集邦咨询最新笔记本产业研究显示，2027年笔记本市场核心风险将从供应约束，转变为成本上涨对终端需求带来的冲击。集邦预估2027年全球笔记本出货量或将录得低个位数下滑；若DRAM、CPU价格持续高位，品牌厂商被迫转嫁成本、抬高终端售价，拉长消费者换机周期，出货衰退幅度或将扩大至高个位数。
集邦咨询测算，建议售价 900美元的主流笔记本机型，2026年第三季度CPU、DRAM、SSD合计物料成本占BOM比重已经达到约68%，核心零部件对整机定价影响力显著提升。品牌厂商面临三重困境：涨价会压制需求，自行承担成本将侵蚀毛利率，削减内存等硬件规格控成本则会削弱产品竞争力。2027年笔记本品牌很难同时稳住售价、硬件规格与利润水平，成本转嫁力度将成为左右市场需求的关键因素。
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