巴克莱:美债收益率高不等于估值便宜

格隆汇
Yesterday
巴克莱策略师Demi Hu和Anshul Pradhan在一份报告中表示,从美国国债估值来看,收益率高并不意味着美债一定便宜。两位策略师称,如果收益率的大部分反映的是市场对短期利率的预期,那么,相较于滚动投资期限更短的工具,投资者持有久期资产所获得的额外补偿就会更少。他们表示:“更高的期限溢价意味着更高的补偿,但也反映出更大的不确定性和久期风险。”他们补充称,这一区分也会影响收益率曲线上不同位置所承受的风险。两位策略师表示,如果重新评估近期货币政策路径,影响应主要集中在收益率曲线的前端和中段,即中等期限区间;而如果期限溢价或长期中性利率假设出现持续上升,则会对收益率曲线更远端造成更大压力。

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