通胀风险上升,印度或将连续加息

环球市场播报
Oct 08

  随着物价压力扩散,印度央行大概率将在接下来的多次会议上持续加息,加入全球收紧货币政策的周期。

  高盛、渣打、德意志银行、摩根士丹利等越来越多机构的经济学家预测,印度储备银行将在12月4日的下次议息会议上继续加息25个基点。部分机构预计2027年上半年还将再加息50个基点,政策利率将由当前5.5%升至6.25%,创两年新高。

  届时印度基准利率将跻身亚洲最高水平之列。就在不到一年前,市场还普遍预期印度央行会降息,通胀前景恶化速度超出预期。

  报道称,印度央行周三实施近四年首次加息,并将政策立场转为“审慎渐进式紧缩”,释放通胀已全面扩散的早期信号,市场对后续持续加息的预期随之升温。

  高盛分析师桑塔努・森古普塔表示,该行衡量印度央行政策基调的指标显示,相比8月,央行表态的鹰派程度显著增强。他预计后续至少还有75个基点的加息空间,理由是经济增长韧性较强、物价压力全面扩散,且厄尔尼诺或将在2027年进一步推高食品通胀。

  花旗的萨米兰・查克拉博蒂目前也认为,累计加息75个基点的可能性上升。

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