The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1136 ET - Economic activity in Canada expanded for a sixth straight month in September, the latest Ivey purchasing managers index report suggests. The seasonally adjusted PMI registered 58.2, a sixth consecutive month above the 12-month moving average of 55 but down from 64.3 in August. Ivey data indicates an increase in purchases contributed to a pike in inventories, and there also was a jump in prices as the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade dispute contributed to supply chain disruptions in North America, professor P. Fraser Johnson says. The prices index rose to 80.4, the highest since April 2022. The employment index came in at 56.5 from 55 in August, while the inventories index registered a decline to 58.3 from August's 61.4 but remained above the 52.9 12-month moving average. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1040 ET - The rebound in Canada's trade surplus in August provides some upside risk to Statistics Canada's advance estimate for a 0.2% growth in monthly GDP, though the surplus is likely to narrow from here as the renewed trade war bites, Capital Economics' Bradley Saunders says. The economist says the sharply wider surplus owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of the Trump administration's Section 338 tariffs. Exports rose 2.5% on-month, completely reversing July's decline, but Saunders says the impact of tariffs should partially reverse in September. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1038 ET - The U.S. widening trade deficit suggests that 3Q economic growth will be slower than expected, Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis writes. The deficit reaches a 17-month high of $105.6 billion in August, after a 4.3% jump in imports outpaced the 1.4% increase in exports. "Overall, the data suggests net trade will be a larger drag to [3Q] GDP than we previously thought," Curtis says. She now expects growth closer to an annualized 2.5%, rather than the current estimate of 4%. "That said, the rise in imports may be reflected by even higher inventory building than we currently assume, meaning the inventory data next week could still provide some payback to our estimate," she says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1035 ET - Employees in New York City's securities industry are making a lot of money. The average annual salary, including bonuses, across the industry rose 11% to $561,770 in 2025, according to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. That figure is more than five times the average salary in the rest of New York City's private sector, he adds. The 2025 bonus pool across the securities industry totaled $49.2 billion, equal to an average bonus of $246,900 per employee, up 6% from the previous year. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1034 ET - Bitcoin and ether are likely to rise if U.S. interest-rate expectations are repriced lower and yield differentials move against the dollar, LMAX Group's Joel Kruger says in a note. Recent data showing softer PCE inflation and subdued hourly earnings growth point to an easing in underlying price pressures, he says. However, services inflation remains elevated and Middle East energy supplies are fragile. "We therefore continue to watch whether improving inflation signals translate into a lasting turn in yields and the [dollar]." A sustained dollar reversal, accompanied by easing yields and healthy risk appetite could support bitcoin and ether, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.6% to $86,321, LSEG data show. Ether increases 0.2% to $2,718. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1029 ET - Employment in New York City's securities industry rose 3.5%, to 207,400 jobs, in 2025--the highest level since data tracking began in 2000, according to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. Preliminary data for 2026 shows the industry on pace to add an additional 5,300 jobs in New York City this year, the report says. While New York added the most securities industry jobs during this period, some states such as Texas and Utah experienced faster rates of growth from smaller employment bases, according to the report. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1027 ET - The amount of stablecoins -- cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional assets like the U.S. dollar --traded in September rose nearly 25% from the prior month, totaling $1.01 trillion, says CoinDesk in a note. It's the first time since March that stablecoin volumes have been over the trillion mark, coinciding with big jumps in bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies seen in September. "The gap between modest supply growth and a sharp rise in turnover points to higher velocity rather than fresh capital alone," says CoinDesk. Bitcoin is up 0.6% to $86,343, while ethereum rises 0.2% to $2,718, XRP climbs 0.6% to $1.51, and solana is up 0.3% to $120.97. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1025 ET - Demand for French debt is still healthy, demonstrated by the fact that French bond auctions remain well covered, says Ken Egan at KBRA in a note. The market remains willing to absorb supply, he says. Still, investors are increasingly looking for at a price that reflects broader political and policy uncertainty. "With fiscal uncertainty elevated, political rhetoric becoming more challenging, and policy scenarios that would normally sit at the margins now being discussed more openly, the market has more room to demand a higher yield," Egan says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

1022 ET - The demand for AI-related goods continues to push up imports, according to Oxford Economics in a note. The August U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6 billion from a revised $92.8 billion in July. That's the largest trade deficit since March 2025, when frontloading ahead of the Trump administration's tariff implementation was in full swing, Oxford says. The U.S. is currently locked in a trade war with Canada, which imposed retaliatory tariffs that took effect last month on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1018 ET - Canada registered a decent trade position in August, with the largest surplus in more than four years, albeit propped up by temporary tariff front-running, Bank of Montreal's Shelly Kaushik says. "Although new tariff challenges await in September, the August strength suggests the economy was weathering the storm better than expected in 3Q," she says. The economist adds that in the short term elevated energy prices should continue to buoy exports in the coming months, but over the longer term a more stable U.S. trading relationship is crucial for trade flows. Until there is that stability, anticipated export capacity and other diversification efforts could help cushion the blow, Kaushik says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1007 ET - The Japanese yen has the potential to recover versus the dollar next year if the market reduces expectations for interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. The yen's weakness since the last Bank of Japan policy decision reflects some impatience in the market over a lack of "hawkish" signals for further interest-rate rises, at least compared to the Fed, she says. "It is Rabobank's house view that the market has anticipated too much Fed policy tightening next year." The dollar trades flat at 157.97 yen and Rabobank maintains a three-month target of 155.00. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1002 ET - The euro should continue to recover from its recent selloff versus the dollar as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates beyond what the market has already priced in, TD Securities strategists say in a note. "The U.S. economy is resilient but not exceptionally heating up and the Fed will hike at a quarterly pace like other central banks." Meanwhile, the spread between French-German government bonds has retraced from multiyear highs. Nonetheless, the current stability remains fragile and it will likely take time for markets to close bets on the euro falling versus the dollar, they say. The euro rises 0.3% to $1.1257 after reaching $1.1160 Monday, its lowest level in more than 16 months, according to LSEG.