德国工厂订单创1月以来最大降幅,令寻求持续复苏的制造业遭遇挫折。
8月工厂订单下降10.6%,7月增长3.2%。根据预测中值,经济学家此前预计仅下降1%。
此次下降主要是受到大额订单减少的影响。剔除这一因素后,整体订单仅下降0.1%。从波动较小的三个月期数据来看,整体订单仍增长1.3%。
尽管如此,这一结果仍给近期一系列显示欧洲最大经济体顶住中东冲突引发的通胀冲击、展现韧性的数据蒙上阴影。对德国经济韧性的乐观情绪促使该国主要经济研究机构将今年的增长预测提高逾一倍,至1.3%。
德国尤其受益于出口走强以及政府增加基础设施和国防支出。强劲的全球需求和人工智能热潮抵消了今年上半年投资和消费疲软的影响,此后的各项指标也显示经济增长势头仍在持续。
德国经济前景面临的主要风险之一是伊朗战争。如果冲突升级并推高能源成本,德国尤其容易受到冲击。
与此同时竞争依然激烈,而欧洲央行料将进一步加息,以遏制通胀压力。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.