Australian Equities Roundup

Dow Jones
Yesterday
 

0110 GMT - Glencore's ASX debut, due on Oct. 14, comes at a time of improving operational and financial performance for the miner, says UBS. Glencore's Ebitda jumped in FY 2026 and copper's contribution to earnings is rising, progressively reshaping its portfolio away from thermal coal, UBS says. "The Marketing division remains a key differentiator versus BHP and RIO, providing earnings diversification that can behave differently from mining operations through the commodity cycle," says the bank. Still, UBS says BHP remains the sector leader for earnings scale and durability. "Unlike peers where a larger proportion of future value creation is tied to project execution, BHP's earnings are predominantly generated by operations already running at scale, including the world's largest listed copper franchise and the sector's most profitable iron ore business," it says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0051 GMT - Gold producer Regis Resources posts a soft start to FY 2027, says Citi. The miner's 1Q production result of 83,000 troy ounces is 12% below Citi's expectations and 9% weaker than consensus, the bank says. "Whilst the in-line cash build despite the production miss suggests better cost control, we await the full quarterly report for more detail," says Citi. Regis plans to publish its full 1Q production result on Oct. 20. Citi notes that Regis has reiterated full-year guidance. "We expect FY27 production to land in the lower half range," the bank says. It has a neutral rating and a target price of 7.90 Australian dollars on Regis. The stock is down 2.0% at A$7.045. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

2328 GMT - The recent G2E casino gaming conference in Las Vegas reinforces the view at Morgan Stanley that the earnings backdrop remains supportive for Australia-listed slots makers. Reiterating an overweight rating on both Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder, Morgan Stanley analysts say their meetings with casino operators, competitors and industry participants left them confident that the market leaders are positioned to take further share. They tell clients in a note that content remains the rivals' key competitive moat, pointing out that both are investing in proven franchises and extending properties across more products and channels. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2249 GMT - Dicker Data's latest acquisition is viewed at UBS as an incrementally positive step despite its relatively small size. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that Dicker Data's A$111.8 million move for regional tech-solutions distributor Sektor Group helps develop its geographic expansion at an attractive acquisition multiple. They think the deal will be immediately accretive to EPS for the Australia-listed hardware and software distributor. With Dicker Data targeting southeast Asia, the UBS analysts want to see more evidence that Sektor can grow its revenues outside of Australia and New Zealand. UBS has a neutral rating on the stock and an unchanged target price of 15.40 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$15.57 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2238 GMT - Sports Entertainment Group's regional expansion helps the sports media group secure a new bull at Bell Potter. Initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating, analyst Michael Ardrey tells clients in a note that the Australian company's recent acquisition of New Zealand-based audio and ad platform MediaWorks brings opportunities for organic growth and above-target cost synergies. With a business that includes sports-talk radio, digital media and live events, Ardrey thinks Sports Entertainment can generate average annual Ebitda growth of 13% through fiscal 2029. Bell Potter places a target price on the stock of 0.45 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$0.265 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2202 GMT - For investors in HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT, the focus has shifted to earnings quality and capital management. That's the view of Macquarie after new leases were agreed for hospitals formally run by Healthscope, which became insolvent. Macquarie says new 20-year triple-net leases preserve face rents. They're either CPI-linked or have 3% fixed annual rent escalations, with an overall incentive of 12%. Macquarie says attention is now on the sustainability of HealthCo's distributions. It notes HealthCo's FY27 guidance highlights a significant gap between funds from operations and underlying FFO. This reflects retained cash within the Unlisted Healthcare Fund, which is 49.6%-owned by HealthCo. "We expect that gap to narrow over time as UHF distributions gradually rebuild," Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2157 GMT - Macquarie isn't ready to turn bullish on Tower, despite the New Zealand-based general insurer's upgrade to its annual earnings guidance. Tower now expects an underlying net profit of NZ$69 million-NZ$79 million in FY26. That's above prior guidance of NZ$55 million-NZ$65 million. The upgrade reflects only NZ$25 million of large events claims costs, compared with Tower's FY26 allowance of NZ$45 million. "Tower is one of the few insurance companies in the region with organic volume growth," Macquarie says. "But at this point in the premium rate cycle we maintain our neutral recommendation." Tower is up 1.5% at NZ$2.07 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2132 GMT - LGI's A$22 million purchase of two solar farms in eastern Australia's Queensland state should drive Ebitda growth this fiscal year, says Ord Minnett. The Brigalow and Chinchilla solar farms have a combined export capacity of 42 megawatts. Analyst Tim Elder expects the acquisition can be comfortably funded through cash and existing debt. "At current market prices, we forecast the assets will contribute Ebitda of A$1.6 million in FY27 and A$2.2 million in FY28," Ord Minnett says. This could rise to A$3.4 million in FY29 and FY30 as LGI captures forecast portfolio and revenue savings. "The acquisition strengthens LGI's medium-term growth outlook and broadens its electricity generation platform," says Ord Minnett, which rates LGI a buy. Its price target lifts 3.5% to A$4.45/share. LGI ended Tuesday at A$2.20.

 

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