金吾财讯 | 国金证券研究指出，全球H1铜矿供给收缩，北美与拉美主导减量，新增产能难改核心矿山约束。49家样本H1产量同比下降4.3%，北美与拉美合计减产38.9万吨；35家公司仅6家上调资本开支，四家调整产量指引的公司合计净下修约3.8万吨。当前铜价未推动行业普遍扩产，供给收缩支撑铜价与资源端盈利。铜股处于“低PE、高EPS韧性、商品未证伪”的组合阶段，市场仍按过去十年的宏观杀估值框架定价铜股，但本轮有色板块已经进入EPS驱动周期，铜板块盈利能力和资源价值重估尚未结束，Q4前后强涨价催化概率进一步上升。
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