Why Intel Doesn’t Need Elon Musk Nearly as Much as Wall Street Thinks

Dow Jones
4 hours ago

Elon Musk was the bearer of bad news for Intel over the weekend—and the chip manufacturer’s red-hot stock took a hit Monday as a result. But it isn’t as big of a setback for Intel as it might seem.

Intel shares dropped 2.6% to $116.19. They had gained 25% over the past month before Monday’s session.

Musk’s comments were certainly the driver. The CEO of SpaceX and Tesla signaled that Intel rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing was exploring how to help his chip venture Terafab run its Texas semiconductor factories.

“Just discussions, but something may come of it,” Musk wrote in a post on his social-media site X, in response to a report that TSMC and Terafab were in talks.

Musk signaled in a follow-up X post that TSMC could supplement rather than replace Intel’s role in the semiconductor manufacturing plant, which aims for 1 terawatt of compute production a year.

TSMC’s U.S. shares climbed 2.8%.

Investors had been hoping Intel would have Terafab all to itself. Intel joined the project, which also includes Musk-led companies SpaceX and Tesla, in April. Intel stock surged 114% that month thanks to a slew of deal announcements.

But the talks with TSMC might not be too much of a blow for Intel, which has a strong investment story beyond the Musk Cinematic Universe. Our colleague Al Root barely mentioned Tesla and SpaceX when he named Intel a Barron’s stock pick earlier this year.

Intel has a multiyear partnership with Alphabet, providing central processing units, or CPUs, and custom chips for Google’s AI cloud infrastructure. It also secured a $5 billion investment from Nvidia last year as part of an agreement to co-develop custom processors.

The chip maker claims about 58% of the x86 CPU market share, according to Karl Ackerman, a senior analyst at BNP Paribas. The consensus on Wall Street is that CPUs will be essential for running autonomous AI agents.

All told, Intel is on track to more than quadruple adjusted earnings per share from last year in 2026. Analysts then expect 38% earnings growth in 2027. Terafab, meanwhile, isn’t even slated to begin initial chip production until late 2027.

For now, investors should look at Terafab as the “cherry on top” for Intel stock—not the main thesis. The companies involved in the project haven’t revealed revenue-sharing details. And Intel’s attempted chip manufacturing comeback spans many more potential customers than Tesla and SpaceX.

Intel is building a mega-factory in Ohio, has one site in Arizona under construction, and began operations at a separate facility in Arizona in 2025.

Whether those facilities successfully ramp up production and pull customers away from TSMC—still the dominant player in chip manufacturing—is an open question. Just don’t expect Terafab to dictate Intel’s fate.

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