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瑞银发布研报称,给予嘉里建设(00683)目标价27港元及“买入”评级。地政总署公布,嘉里建设以逾43.08亿港元投得何文田佛光街住宅地,作价远高于市场预期上限,每平方英尺楼面地价约20738港元,中标价较市场预期上限高出38%。
基于以下假设:鉴于该项目为豪宅,预计完工后销售将带来为期六年的资金回笼周期;每年资金成本为4%;建筑成本为每平方英尺6000港元,瑞银估算按总楼面面积计算的开发总成本为每平方英尺33155港元。
若进一步假设实用率为85%,该行估算嘉里建设需达到每平方英尺可出售面积约39000港元的平均售价方能达到收支平衡。这一价格远高于附近豪宅项目“天铸”的售价,其近期二手市场成交价约为每平方英尺30000港元。
该行认为,此次收购反映管理层对香港豪宅市场前景的信心。该行估算,收购完成后,嘉里建设的净负债比率将从2026年6月的31.3%上升至34.9%。不过,公司的去杠杆趋势应能维持,因为预计到2026年第四季度将收到上海项目约80亿元人民币的销售净额,这将有望把净负债权益比率降至27.1%。鉴于该地块的地价相对较高,该行预期市场对此次收购的股价反应将偏向负面。
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