ECB Unlikely to Step in to Support France Despite Bond Pressure

Dow Jones
Yesterday

1037 GMT - The European Central Bank is unlikely to trigger its Transmission Protection Instrument to support France anytime soon, Joerg Kraemer at Commerzbank says in a note. French government bonds are under severe pressure, with the 10-year spread over German Bunds reaching 140 basis points, its highest since 2012. Still, while France could technically qualify for the ECB's TPI, the central bank is unlikely to want to relieve pressure on French policymakers just yet, Kraemer says. Also, without facing a sovereign debt crisis, the move would conflict with the tool's purpose of addressing disorderly market dynamics. Instead, the ECB could first signal willingness to intervene, or redirect maturing PEPP proceeds toward French bonds, the analyst says. A more lasting solution would be fiscal consolidation to stop debt rising faster than nominal GDP, he says.

 

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