Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Oct 07

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2017 ET - JGB futures edge higher in the early Tokyo session, tracking overnight price gains in U.S. Treasury market. JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. "We anticipate that buying will be slightly dominant" today following Tuesday's pause in Treasury yields' rise, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities' fixed income strategists say in commentary. Focus may also be on the BOJ's scheduled outright purchases today in three sectors of the JGB market including sovereign debt with tenors of more than 10-years and up to 25-years, the strategists add. Benchmark 10-year JGB futures are 0.05 yen higher at 124.30 yen. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2014 ET - Japan's Nikkei Stock Average is flat at 70685.22 as gains in electronics and machinery shares offset losses in financial stocks. Hitachi Ltd. is up 2.4% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is 2.5% higher, while Resona Holdings is down 1.5% and Rakuten Bank is 0.7% lower. The broader market index Topix is up 0.4% at 4198.52. The dollar is at 158.42 yen, compared with Y158.18 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices and bond yields. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

1940 ET - Japanese stocks may rise following U.S. stock gains overnight as concerns about borrowing costs ease. Nikkei futures are up 0.1% at 70940 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.25 yen, compared with Y158.18 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Iran conflict, crude oil prices and bond yields. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.1% to 70683.98 on Tuesday, closing above the 70000 threshold for the first time since July 1. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1934 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be aided by appetite for risk assets. "The S&P 500 rose to a fresh record high, supported by optimism around AI-related spending," CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. The overnight rise in equities has boosted risk sentiment, the international economics and currency strategist says. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at 158.23 yen, but is little changed at 1,337.88 won while the Australian dollar is flat at US$0.6981, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1928 ET - The recent G2E casino gaming conference in Las Vegas reinforces the view at Morgan Stanley that the earnings backdrop remains supportive for Australia-listed slots makers. Reiterating an overweight rating on both Aristocrat Leisure and Light & Wonder, Morgan Stanley analysts say their meetings with casino operators, competitors and industry participants left them confident that the market leaders are positioned to take further share. They tell clients in a note that content remains the rivals' key competitive moat, pointing out that both are investing in proven franchises and extending properties across more products and channels. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1849 ET - Dicker Data's latest acquisition is viewed at UBS as an incrementally positive step despite its relatively small size. The investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that Dicker Data's A$111.8 million move for regional tech-solutions distributor Sektor Group helps develop its geographic expansion at an attractive acquisition multiple. They think the deal will be immediately accretive to EPS for the Australia-listed hardware and software distributor. With Dicker Data targeting southeast Asia, the UBS analysts want to see more evidence that Sektor can grow its revenues outside of Australia and New Zealand. UBS has a neutral rating on the stock and an unchanged target price of 15.40 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$15.57 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1838 ET - Sports Entertainment Group's regional expansion helps the sports media group secure a new bull at Bell Potter. Initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating, analyst Michael Ardrey tells clients in a note that the Australian company's recent acquisition of New Zealand-based audio and ad platform MediaWorks brings opportunities for organic growth and above-target cost synergies. With a business that includes sports-talk radio, digital media and live events, Ardrey thinks Sports Entertainment can generate average annual Ebitda growth of 13% through fiscal 2029. Bell Potter places a target price on the stock of 0.45 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$0.265 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1757 ET - Macquarie isn't ready to turn bullish on Tower, despite the New Zealand-based general insurer's upgrade to its annual earnings guidance. Tower now expects an underlying net profit of NZ$69 million-NZ$79 million in FY26. That's above prior guidance of NZ$55 million-NZ$65 million. The upgrade reflects only NZ$25 million of large events claims costs, compared with Tower's FY26 allowance of NZ$45 million. "Tower is one of the few insurance companies in the region with organic volume growth," Macquarie says. "But at this point in the premium rate cycle we maintain our neutral recommendation." Tower is up 1.5% at NZ$2.07 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1741 ET - The Trump administration's flurry of U.S. tariffs didn't stop imports from rising last year thanks to a glut of spending on AI infrastructure and an early rush to import before tariffs took effect, according to an analysis from the Dallas Fed. The average U.S. tariff rate increased by almost 12 percentage points in 2025, the largest jump since the Great Depression, creating an expectation that spending on U.S. imports would decline sharply, Fed researchers say. Instead, U.S. imports grew by 4.5% last year, they say. Were it not for heightened AI-related importing and countries front-running to beat tariff impositions early in the year, U.S. import growth would've likely been negative, the researchers say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1547 ET - The global bonds selloff takes a break and Treasury yields edge lower ahead of Fed minutes. The central bank is expected to hold rates this month, after raising them in September for the first time in three years. Inflation data coming next week could still change the outlook. An auction of three-year notes clears at the highest yield since 2006, as investors demand loftier returns to finance the government. The Treasury will auction $39 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow. The 10-year yield drops 0.040 percentage point to 5.270% and the two-year falls 0.042 points to 4.789%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1440 ET - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said the Fed still has work to do on short-term interest rates, even though longer-term Treasury yields remain elevated. Speaking at a fireside chat, Schmid said higher long-term rates are "no doubt" changing behaviors in the investing world through cost of capital and credit. However, Schmid said the Fed is focused on the short federal funds rate. "Personally, I think we have some work to do on the short rate, even though I would say that the yield curve right now is in a more traditional place."(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1437 ET - U.S. farmers turned more pessimistic in September, thanks to higher input costs pressuring farmer's bottom lines. In the latest Ag Economy Barometer produced by Purdue University and the CME Group, farmer sentiment in September fell from 135 to 123. More farmers surveyed in September expect their finances to be 'worse off' a year from now than 'better', although many farmers do see some bright spots on the horizon. "While higher costs and financial pressures are clearly shaping producers' views of current conditions, strong expectations for farmland values point to a more positive outlook for some aspects of the agricultural economy," says Michael Langemeier of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.

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