张忆东:港股市场在10月份大概率将出现反弹行情

格隆汇
Oct 05
据每经,海通国际首席经济学家张忆东今日发布最新观点认为,港股市场在10月份大概率将出现反弹行情。张忆东表示,虽然基本面修复尚需时间,但是,海外债市波动引发了过度拥挤的悲观交易,导致港股调整幅度大幅超出基本面所能解释的合理区间。所以,后续港股行情反弹,可能只需要short cover(空头回补)就能启动,未必需要等待经济和盈利全面回升。美债长端利率能否结束急升、中国经济基本面能否持续企稳回暖,是能否打开港股修复空间的两个关键变量。 张忆东强调,中国经济企稳对港股的意义尤其直接,不论是金融地产,还是互联网、消费,港股权重股的基本面,基本立足于中国经济,一旦稳经济政策组合拳不断落地,势必有助于推动港股行情从风险溢价回落走向盈利修复。后续若经济数据改善,港股反弹的基本面支撑将进一步增强。 对于后市,张忆东认为港股10月份有望先抑后扬,厚积薄发,可以关注港股波动率指标和美债利率走势和美股走势。投资策略方面,建议防守反击,顺应高利率、高波动时代,掘金超级智能的应用主线,配置深度价值的非科技。

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