金吾财讯 | 国金证券研究指，红利资产配置有望从强调利润稳定增长的“利与红利”，逐步转向兼具高股息与业绩弹性的“红与红利”，火电板块是其中的优选方向。其核心逻辑在于业绩困境反转、电力供需边际改善及资本开支回落。尽管2026年煤价上涨导致火电盈利承压，但全国性火电公司上半年度电利润仍维持约2-4分/千瓦时，板块整体股息率仍在4%以上，体现出较强的底部盈利韧性。展望明年，预计电量电价侧将修复今年由于煤价上涨带来的成本传导，容量电价侧考虑用电负荷新高及调节性需求提升，亦有望向上。与此同时，火电资本开支高峰已经过去，2026年上半年自由现金流仍达到347亿元，随着多家公司明确分红比例或绝对分红金额承诺，预计明年盈利修复将进一步增强分红能力和盈利稳定性，推动板块估值中枢回升，我们认为火电将成为“红与红利”的核心。
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