瑞士嘉盛:预期美联储明年加息至5%,美元走势或较预期更强劲

格隆汇
Yesterday

10月12日,瑞士嘉盛银行首席经济师兼经济研究分析部主管Karsten Junius认为,随经济活动持续展现韧性,环球央行面对进一步收紧货币政策的压力日益增加,金融市场已相应上调对未来政策利率走势的预期,推动主要经济体的债券收益率进一步上升。

该行最新预测,2027年美联储将把政策利率上调至5%,英伦银行调升至4.25%,欧洲央行上调至3%,日本央行上调至2%,瑞士央行则上调至0.5%。多个新兴市场亦很可能进一步收紧货币政策。

Karsten Junius指,目前的高债息已显著改善未来的风险回报平衡,但短期内仍可能出现进一步波动,故此该行上调对美元利率及债息的预测,意味美元走势可能较先前预期更为强劲,而市场对法国财政状况的忧虑,则进一步加大欧元的短期压力。

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