同一场厄尔尼诺,为什么橡胶看涨而镍未必受益:东南亚产业链的分化定价

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超强厄尔尼诺事件已经形成,未来三个月赤道中东太平洋(601099)海表温度仍可能升高,并在秋末冬初达到峰值。市场最先交易的,往往是“天气会不会改变供给”的预期;真正决定商品价格方向的,却是这份预期能否穿透生产、物流、库存和需求。核心问题因此不是厄尔尼诺是否利多大宗商品,而是同一场气候事件,为什么可能让天然橡胶获得供应溢价,却未必推高镍价?答案藏在两种产业完全不同的生产机制中。一、先看产业的第一受...

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