Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0934 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, fall faster than their eurozone peers as oil prices decline after President Trump said talks with Iran were going well. "Whilst markets are not holding their breath for a quick resolution to the conflict, it's encouraging that neither side is willing to abandon the negotiating table," XM's Raffi Boyadjian says in a note. News about the U.S.-Iran talks have caused market sentiment to improve. Ten-year gilt yields fall 6.6 basis points to last trade at 5.423%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year Bund yields fall 4.2 basis points to 3.464%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0930 ET - Russia and Ukraine are engaging with other channels to try and get grain shipments out of the besieged Black Sea region. "Russia is increasingly relying on its Baltic Sea ports for this purpose," says Commerzbank in a note, citing a representative from Russian Railways stating that the ports have almost tripled in capacity, to 23.5 million metric tons of grain. Ukraine is attempting to ship more grains via the Danube River, Commerzbank adds. Even so, the flow of grains coming out of the Black Sea region is still much less than this time last year, showing how important the ports that have been damaged this year are to shipping operations. CBOT wheat is down 0.2%, while corn is flat and soybeans rise 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0821 ET - Oil prices extend losses in afternoon European trading, even as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated and Hurricane Isaias threatens production in the U.S. Gulf Coast. "Oil futures looked set to finish the week with solid gains but are now more likely to end lower," analysts at brokerage XM say. "Whilst markets are not holding their breath for a quick resolution to the conflict, it's encouraging that neither side is willing to abandon the negotiating table just yet and this is taking the pressure off oil prices today." Brent crude is down 1.4% to $102.79 a barrel, while WTI futures slide 1% to $90.69 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0626 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower Friday, reversing earlier gains as optimism over a possible Malaysian export duty waiver faced after the anticipated announcement failed to materialize, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. He expects cautious trading as investors assess the upcoming MPOB supply-demand report, particularly September inventories and export performance, he adds. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,750 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 69 ringgit to 4,592 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0527 ET - The dollar has limited scope to fall as bond markets and risk sentiment remain fragile while the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again in December, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The dollar has lost some ground as the sharp rise in Treasury yields pauses but there are no signs of broader correction in the currency, he says. President Trump has said the U.S. won't attack Iran before November's midterms "but the oil market is reluctant to price out the geopolitical premium that has kept prices above $100 per barrel." ING expects a slightly stronger dollar in the near term. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 102.046 after hitting a near 18-month high of 101.535 Monday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0359 ET - Brent's risk premium reached an estimated $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record, reflecting persistent fears of disruptions in the Middle East and demand for oil as a portfolio hedge. "The peak monthly risk premium estimate during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 did not exceed $16/bbl, highlighting how unprecedented this year's oil supply shock has been," analysts at the bank say. OECD commercial stocks remain a key driver, with a 100 million-barrel decline in inventories raising Brent's fair value by nearly $8 a barrel. Meanwhile, investors often increase oil exposure to hedge against losses in equity and bond portfolios during supply shocks, as higher oil prices fuel inflation concerns and weigh on traditional asset returns, Goldman says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0337 ET - EU approval for MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business would be "the very best outcome" for European stainless steel customers and for the company's workers in Brazil, the London-listed mining company's chief operating officer Ruben Fernandes says. His comments come on the back of a closed-door hearing with EU merger officials Thursday, who have raised concerns the transaction could divert supplies from Europe to China. "Prohibition means that we will head towards 'care and maintenance' as the pathway to closure of the operations in Brazil. That would be the ultimate lose-lose outcome," he says, adding that Anglo American presented "the clear realities of the market during the hearing."(edith.hancock@wsj.com)

0328 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall as markets calm after President Trump on Thursday said that the U.S.-Iran peace talks were progressing well. Trump also said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the mid-term elections in November, easing concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict. Brent crude is down 0.8% to $103.4 a barrel. Ten-year gilt yields fall 5.7 basis points to last trade at 5.431%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0318 ET - European stock indexes rise at the open, buoyed by a pullback in bond yields and an easing in oil prices. Banking, software and energy-intensive stocks trade up, lifting the Stoxx 600 0.8% higher. London's FTSE 100 rises 0.8%. Miners in the index gain as metals prices advance, while software group Relx is up 2.7%. The German DAX adds 0.6%, led by a 2.8% jump for software giant SAP. Deutsche Telekom tumbles 7%, however, after SpaceX accelerated its efforts to build a mobile network. In Paris, the CAC 40 jumps 0.8% as luxuries strengthen, though Orange--down 2.6%--drags the index. Italy's FTSE MIB gains 0.9%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 adds 0.1%. The Dutch AEX rises 0.6%, though ASML slips 0.9%.(josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0313 ET - Oil prices fall after President Trump said the U.S. wouldn't attack Iran before the midterms, citing "productive" talks with Tehran. In early European trading, Brent crude is down 0.8% to $103.48 a barrel, while WTI futures slip 0.7% to $90.86 a barrel. However, investors continue to price in an extended period of supply disruption into next year, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia sustain the geopolitical risk premium and shipping in the Gulf remains under threat. Meanwhile, major oil producers have temporarily shut down Gulf of Mexico output ahead of Hurricane Isaias, raising concerns that power outages and flooding could disrupt refinery operations. The risk comes as U.S. refiners are operating above 90% of capacity to help offset war-driven global supply shortages. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0301 ET - British energy major BP's deleveraging efforts are ahead of plan, Baader Helvea's Frederic Lorec writes, as he upgrades the stock's target price to 636 pence from 549 pence. He also upgrades the adjusted earnings per share forecast to $1.17 in 2026 and $0.81 in 2027, from $0.69 and $0.59. The upgrade stems from higher Brent prices and strong refining margins, he writes. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0248 ET - Bitcoin recovers slightly after reaching a two-and-a-half-week low on Thursday as risk appetite improves on hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East conflict. President Trump said in a Truth Social post that the U.S. won't attack Iran before November's midterm elections, citing "productive" discussions. Oil prices ease, sending the dollar lower and providing some support to bitcoin. Bitcoin rises 0.9% to $82,468 after hitting as low as $80,391 Thursday, LSEG data show. Thursday's declines were in part due to a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields as oil prices jumped on concerns about an escalation in the Middle East.

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