金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，霍尔木兹海峡石油出口恢复至战前水平，货盘的大量增长和有限的可用船舶清单推动VLCC运价持续上行，并开始外溢至Suezmax。沙特扩大贴水持续刺激货盘，STS转运为当下主要的交货方式，非传统装卸作业叠加穿梭油轮运力限制持续损耗VLCC有效运力，无法与增长的货盘匹配，随着近期船舶袭击频率提升，受损船只维修困难，VLCC有效运力进一步受损，VLCC运价或进一步上行。裂解价差有望维持高位，炼厂采购意愿仍然充足，能源供应逐步转向稳定优先，季节性的刚性需求叠加贸易流向转变带来的航距增长，成品油运输有望迎来拐点。4Q26油轮龙头估值和利润有望创历史新高。
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