Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0928 ET - The Norwegian krone could rise further as fundamentals are supportive and oil prices remain elevated, ING analysts say in a note. Neither the risk of a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East conflict or a sharp oil price decline appear imminent at this stage, they say, noting Norway's position as a major oil and gas producer. Moreover, the krone benefits from a weaker euro on French fiscal concerns, which is offsetting the impact of a poorer liquidity environment, they say. The euro falls 0.1% to 10.6921 krone after earlier reaching a one-month low of 10.6835. ING expects it to reach 10.65 in one month and 10.50 in 12 months.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0524 ET - Oil tanker freight rates have surged as rising attacks and longer shipping routes squeeze vessel availability in the Middle East, according to ANZ. The cost of chartering a very large crude carrier to ship oil from the Persian Gulf to China has climbed to nearly $1 million a day from about $230,000 on the eve of the war, ANZ says, citing shipping-data provider Clarkson. Freight costs have also surged on other routes, with one U.S. tanker cargo booked last week at $41 a barrel. Meanwhile, second-hand tanker prices have risen to a record $240 million. "A shortage of the tankers needed to ship oil has emerged as a key constraint on Middle East oil flows, raising questions about the sustainability of recent export gains and increasing the risk of supply disruptions in the months ahead," ANZ analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0449 ET - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below prewar levels, with confirmed volumes averaging 10.5 million barrels a day in the seven days to Oct. 10, about 38% below the prewar baseline of 17.1 million barrels a day, according to Kpler data. Confirmed flows fell to 2 million barrels a day on Oct. 10, from 6.7 million on Oct. 9 and 22.8 million on Oct. 8, underscoring significant daily volatility. The latest figures are preliminary and might be revised higher as additional tanker movements are confirmed, according to the data firm. The data excludes Iranian-origin transits. Increased attacks on tankers and elevated maritime risks continue to disrupt shipping through the key oil-export route, keeping daily Gulf flows volatile, while high freight rates are expected to persist through the fourth quarter, Kpler says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0442 ET - Diesel releases from European strategic reserves and increased Russian diesel supplies to the U.S. could ease pressure on pump prices but squeeze refiners already facing high crude and shipping costs, according to Sparta Commodities. Refiners have relied on unusually strong diesel margins to offset expensive feedstock, but additional supplies could push prices lower and erode profitability. The risk is that weaker margins prompt refiners to cut processing rates, limiting future fuel production. "These diesel releases could upset that balance for refiners," says Aaron Kildow from Sparta. "If the issue is compounded by another period of limited flows from the Red Sea and Hormuz, it could cause real pain for refiners." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0327 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, drop as oil prices edge lower after President Trump announced a deal with Russia to supply diesel. Nonetheless, gilt yields remain close to the multi-decade highs reached last week as inflation concerns and fiscal jitters weigh on investor sentiment. Ten-year gilt yields fall 3.9 basis points to last trade at 5.417%, having hit a 19-year high of 5.527% last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0317 ET - Oil prices fall after President Trump said his administration reached an agreement for Russia to supply large amounts of diesel to the U.S. and global markets. Brent crude is down 0.6% to $104.90 a barrel, while WTI futures fall 0.8% to $91.10 a barrel. However, a more meaningful decline in refined product prices will require normalized conditions in the Middle East, according to ING. "Not just in the amount of oil flowing from the Persian Gulf, but also in the way this oil is coming out," analysts at the firm say. "Inefficient trade flows of oil from the Middle East have led to a significant surge in tanker freight rates, which will likely keep product prices elevated." Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated following the deadly Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia's international airport on Saturday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0308 ET - Eurozone government bond yields fall in opening trade as oil prices are marginally lower. There is no impulse from U.S. Treasurys as the Treasury market is closed due to Columbus Day. There is no eurozone government-bond issuance on Monday but Ireland and Slovakia will release details of their upcoming auctions, while Spain will announce the target volume for its auction. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 2.7 basis points to 3.462%, while the 10-year French 10-year OAT yield declines 2.7 basis points to 4.836%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0249 ET - Bitcoin rises after President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said the deal was "news to me" but would agree if Russian President Vladimir Putin did the same. "Markets open Monday with a tentative improvement in risk appetite as softer oil prices offer some relief from inflation concerns, despite renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia," LMAX Group's Joel Kruger says in a note. The Russia-Ukraine news has encouraged hopes of easing pressure on fuel markets, he says. However, the ceasefire remains disputed, while Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure highlight the continuing threat to regional supplies, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $83,893, LSEG data show.

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