【交投清淡假日行情下，德债、英债或将迎来喘息机会】隔夜亚洲市场相对平静，加之今日美国债市休市，交易员得以重新评估欧洲央行与英国央行的利率路径定价。隔夜指数掉期定价显示，市场预期欧洲央行未来一年将加息近三次，我认为这一预期略显夸大。尤其是法国财政风险不断上升，再度引发市场对欧元区金融稳定的担忧。欧洲央行官员表态支持维持适度限制性利率，在我看来，存款利率上限将为3%。英国方面，交易员定价英国央行未来12个月将加息四次，即便作为对冲考量，该预期也并不现实。市场定价英国央行将于11月加息，这一点合乎情理，但英国央行货币政策委员会已有数名委员认为当前3.75%的利率已高于中性利率。因此一年后回看，当前市场定价大概率站不住脚。债市今日的喘息行情或延续至周三，当日将公布美国9月通胀数据。经济学家预估整体通胀为3.6%。若数据符合预期，本周中段之后，市场将难以大举长久期资产。
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