美银维持阿里巴巴“买入”评级,上调目标价并看好云与AI盈利拐点

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【美银维持阿里巴巴“买入”评级,上调目标价并看好云与AI盈利拐点】美银维持阿里巴巴“买入”评级,并将美股目标价上调至178美元、港股目标价由172港元上调至175港元,理由是公司盈利改善尚未充分反映在股价中。该机构预计阿里巴巴9月季度营收同比增长10%,调整后EBITA为300亿元人民币,高于市场一致预期的260亿元及上一季度的270亿元;其中云业务收入增速预计由上一季度的45%加快至52%,外部客户需求增长接近55%,调整后EBITA利润率由11.6%升至12.9%。美银预计,随着训练效率改善,AI实验室及应用业务亏损将由140亿元收窄至110亿元,并预计自12月季度起,云业务调整后EBITA可覆盖AI业务亏损,推动云与AI业务由2026财年亏损逾200亿元逐步在2027财年下半年实现盈亏平衡。电商方面,该机构预计客户管理收入同比下降5%,但受效率提升和即时零售亏损收窄推动,综合电商调整后EBITA仍将增长2%;主要风险包括AI采用或云需求放缓、AI资本开支快于商业化进度以及电商、即时零售和云业务竞争加剧。

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