Despite the recent memory stocks sell-off, Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) stock could reach $3,000 within 24 months if fiscal 2028 earnings climb to $200 per share, according to Nicholas Mugalli, CEO and principal of World Trade Securities. He explained that his valuation case rests on applying a 15-times earnings multiple to that $200 EPS estimate.
Mugalli Lays Out $3,000 Micron Math
"It’s pretty simple, frankly," Mugalli told Benzinga during an exclusive interview. He pointed to Micron’s current-quarter guidance for $38.15 in adjusted EPS on roughly 1.15 billion diluted shares. Mugalli said the company’s chief financial officer also described the quarter’s gross margin as the floor for the year.
"That’s over $150 annualized, from the low point of the year," Mugalli said. "I need $200 in FY28 at 15 times earnings." That combination would produce a $3,000 valuation, 189.62% higher from the current level, according to his framework.
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, is calculated by dividing a company’s share price by its earnings per share. Reversing that formula, Mugalli’s $200 EPS estimate multiplied by a 15-times earnings multiple produces a $3,000 share-price target.
Mugalli said World Trade Securities’ research team had modeled gross margins at about 84% for the quarter, which he described as a high-end estimate. "They came in 87% and raised their guide again," he said, adding that the result exceeded even his team’s expectations.
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Memory Bull Sees Earnings Strength Continuing
Mugalli also compared Micron’s earnings power with Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), saying Micron had earned more money than Nvidia when the chipmaker traded at a $1 trillion market capitalization.
"I believe it will be just as strong," he said.
His broader Micron thesis is tied to changes in the memory market. Mugalli said high-bandwidth memory uses roughly three times the wafer capacity per bit of standard DRAM, pulling supply away from the commodity market.
He also argued that contract pricing is playing a larger role than the spot market. Mugalli said more than 75% of Micron’s fiscal 2027 shipments are already under customer allocation or contract, while long-term agreements cover more than 35% of revenue through 2030.
What Could Break The Thesis
Mugalli said he would reconsider his view if customers begin renegotiating price floors, spot prices remain below contract prices for two consecutive quarters, or capital spending stays above 40% of revenue for a full year.
"If I see two of those three, I’m wrong, and I’ll admit it," he said.
How Has MU Performed in 2026?
MU stock was 1.85% higher in premarket on Friday. It has gained 427.04% over the last year, 262.93% year-to-date, and 3.56% over the last month. The stock closed down 4.79% at $1,035.84 on Thursday.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MU maintains a strong price trend in the short, medium, and long terms, with a good growth score.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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