高盛:新兴市场股市愈趋聚焦科技并高度集中,盈利增长支撑估值

格隆汇
Yesterday
高盛发表研报指,新兴市场股票指数愈趋聚焦科技并高度集中,引发对人工智能主导地位上升的关注。受人工智能投资热潮带动,科技硬件股大幅造好,令新兴市场指数集中度升至纪录高位,韩国与中国台湾合计约占MSCI新兴市场指数一半,资讯科技权重逾40%,“人工智能三巨头”台积电、三星电子及SK海力士合计约占30%。 该行指出,集中度上升反映异常强劲的盈利增长,而非投机性亢奋。尽管集中度上升,MSCI新兴市场估值今年已下调逾20%,因盈利增长快于股价升幅。MSCI新兴市场盈利于2026年第二季按年急升95%,该行预测2026年增长65%,其中“人工智能三巨头”贡献约四成净利及约六成指数每股盈利增长;预期每股盈利增长于2027年及2028年分别放缓至约20%及14%。 该行建议跨地区分散继续超配巴西、南非、希腊及匈牙利,同时看好北亚;并以防守性因子平衡科技与动量、考虑等权或设上限基准,以及运用衍生工具对冲。

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