高盛作图"汽油价格决定美国中选"!预测市场显示"民主党横扫两院概率达65%"

格隆汇
Yesterday
距离美国中期选举仅剩26天,高盛华盛顿政治团队最新发布的《美国选举监测:10月8日更新》显示:预测市场目前给出民主党横扫参众两院的概率高达65%,共和党保住众议院多数席位的概率已不足10%。高盛将民主党的领先优势与美国零售汽油价格走势直接挂钩——汽油从2026年初的约3美元/加仑飙升至春季近5美元,再回落至夏季约4美元后再度攀升,民主党在通用选票中的领先优势也从约5个百分点扩大至近9个百分点,两条曲线高度同步。

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