机构:美国通胀棘手但非无解,能源二次效应或年底才显现

格隆汇
Oct 14
富兰克林邓普顿研究所首席投资策略师舒尔茨表示,中东石油供应中断、AI相关电子品短缺及关税冲击带来供给扰动,推升通胀压力。这类供给冲击造成了棘手的通胀局面,但随着时间进入2027年,部分这类风险将会缓解。他补充道,这种缓和态势或许已经显现,“我认为(9月核心通胀)各项指标将普遍降温。”他表示,能源涨价向其他品类传导的二次效应大概率年底前后才会显现,不会体现在9月CPI数据中;此外,劳动力市场驱动的需求型通胀暂无明显问题。舒尔茨判断,除非CPI数据大幅超出市场一致预期,否则美联储10月大概率维持利率不变。

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