金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，受内需复苏偏慢、电池加征消费税、以及新能源车出口退税的退坡预期（10月12日已公布、2027年4月1日生效）拖累，中国汽车股3Q26跑输大盘。但该机构判断，销量环比增长、价格企稳、成本控制与海外占比提升，将推动该机构覆盖的7家头部车企3Q26收入与净利环比扩张；7家合计销量环比增16%，跑赢行业9个百分点。该机构再度下调2026零售与批发预测：因3Q26行业零售低于预期约14%，该机构将2026乘用车零售预测下调8.3%至1,895万台（同比-18.5%），为2015年来最低、史上最大降幅；批发下调6.7%至2,871万台（同比-4.6%），为2021年来首降。韧性主要来自出口，预计大增68%至1,016万台，占批发35%。尽管9月新能源市占率首破65%，受总体行业下滑影响，该机构下调2026新能源乘用车零售销量7.8%至1,112万台（同比-10.2%），该机构预计2026新能源乘用车批发增长11.0%至1,714万台，全年市占率近60%。
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