华安证券:首予中国石油“买入”评级,炼化板块有望价值重估

智通财经
7 hours ago
【华安证券:首予中国石油“买入”评级,炼化板块有望价值重估】华安证券日前研报指出,中国石油页岩油气产量高增,炼化板块有望价值重估。油价高位震荡,公司勘探板块充分受益。美国页岩油边际成本持续抬升,高产量难以持续;欧佩克+自2025年4月起由减产转向渐进式增产但节奏温和克制;中东地缘冲突频发,原油重要运输通路关闭导致断供风险升高。在地缘冲突频发、全球石油投资缩减、美国原油产量增幅有限的三重作用下,认为原油基本面仍将维持中高位宽幅震荡。页岩油气逐步起量,有望成为未来增量来源;海外炼厂加速退出,供给格局持续优化,景气度有望提升。天然气顺价带来盈利弹性,消费税改革加强公司炼销一体化优势;消费税改革深入,公司油品炼销一体化优势显著。此外,公司重视股东回报,持续提高分红率和股息率。预计公司2026-2028年归母净利润分别为1839.41、1938.54、1972.16亿元,对应PE分别为12、11、11倍,首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。

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