【券商聚焦】华泰证券:欧盟能源转型和AI增长或致缺电力

金吾财讯
Oct 14

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,近年来,AIDC、交通电气化快速发展与欧洲能源转型同步推进,未来欧洲电力系统能否满足新增顶峰需求逐渐受到市场关注。本报告通过复盘欧盟电力供需结构、搭建欧盟电力供需平衡表,发现:1)2008年起欧洲用电需求由长期增长转入停滞状态,未来十年AIDC和交通电气化有望推动这一趋势发生变化,峰值负荷也将随之增长;2)欧洲未来在能源转型的背景下,风光装机占比持续提升、煤电等传统可控电源退出,可控装机增长将慢于峰值负荷增长,2027年起或将产生电力缺口;3)为弥补电力系统顶峰容量缺失,电化学储能装机有望显著增长。灵活性电源如电化学储能产业链将受益。与市场观点不同之处在于,1)市场认为在能源转型背景下,欧盟煤电装机将于2025-2035年快速退出,但实际参考欧盟各国国家层面的煤电退出保守预测情形及考虑欧盟AIDC这类刚性用电负荷增长所可能导致的缺电力情况,该机构认为欧盟煤电退出速度或低于市场预期,预计约为市场预测速度的67%。2)市场认为欧盟气电装机将于2026-2030年增长后于2030-2035年逐渐下滑,但该机构考虑欧盟整体及其内部各个国家的顶峰需求,预计欧盟气电装机将于2026-2035年维持增长趋势。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10