October has been a busy month for disruption drama. Walt Disney is trying to unseat IMAX with help from a cast of Old Hollywood avengers, including Universal and Paramount. And Elon Musk's SpaceX satellite empire agreed to pay $8 billion for cellular spectrum licenses, sending telecom shares sliding.

Let's assess prospects and progress for these and other, longer-running corporate insurgencies by issuing a disruption score card, using a scale from one to five Schumps. Those are named for Joseph Schumpeter, the Austrian-born economist and Harvard dandy known for his knee-high riding boots and capes, theatrical lectures, and belief that creative destruction is a core engine of capitalism rather than a flaw. Grading will be arbitrary and opaque, but also Schumpterian, which is to say, performed while wearing my highest-rising footwear, 8-inch L.L. Bean duck boots.

Disney vs. IMAX

4 Schumps

I'm deducting a Schump only because no one has done much of anything yet, but on paper, this plan is gold. IMAX theaters fetch premium prices and can boost box office revenue, but there aren't enough to go around. Lately, IMAX has used the shortage to favor films that were shot using its cameras, effectively double-dipping on fees. Disney is hot over its Avengers: Doomsday, a sure moneymaker, getting blocked from IMAX screens come Christmastime by Dune: Part 3. Dune was shot on IMAX, while Avengers was not.

Earlier this year, Disney introduced a new big-screen format called Infinity Vision, and this month, it announced that a host of big studios are on board. Big theater chains will like the pitch: Take their existing non-IMAX premium screens with names no one recognizes, like AMC Prime and Cinemark XD, and rebrand them as Infinity Vision, with better marketing. Hollywood pushes big films on this new standard, and both it and theaters keep higher cuts. As a test, Disney rereleased the last Avengers movie from 2019 on Infinity Vision, and it did a big enough number to nudge it ahead of Avatar as the top seller ever. Disney's plan is cheap for theaters and studios, and just the threat of it could help keep IMAX in check on fees. IMAX stock is down 8% from its late-September peak.

Musk vs. Telecom

2.5 Schumps

We're still waiting for the humanoid robot and robo-taxi takeovers, but one area where Elon Musk has outperformed expectations is in driving down satellite launch costs using reusable rockets. That has made SpaceX's Starlink unit a world-beater in space-based communications. Lately, SpaceX has been snapping up wireless spectrum licenses, which looks to some investors like a telecom takeover -- unlikely. Satellites are great for filling in telecom dead zones, but they're no match for dense networks of cell towers and fiberoptic cables in urban and suburban markets.

By partnering with a telco, or operating as a limited one itself, Starlink can provide satellite voice and data service through regular phones, without the use of bulky antennas, while reducing connectivity problems in buildings or under heavy foliage. But rolling out a true Verizon or AT&T killer would cost perhaps $250 billion in spectrum, cell towers, fiberoptics, and other infrastructure, which is more than the stock market value of either company. A takeover, meanwhile, would be a regulatory long shot. And big telcos are unlikely to grant Starlink permission to piggyback off their networks for mobile service that might rival or beat their own. That leaves Starlink keeping costs down and competing for flights, shipping, and the 15% to 20% of earth's land which lacks cell towers, while licensing dead-spot coverage to telcos. It's an excellent plan, but not a telco killer, and not trying to be.

Capital One vs. Visa and Mastercard

3.5 Schumps

When Capital One bought Discover last year, it picked up more than additional customer accounts. Discover, like American Express, has its own payment network, so it bypasses the near-duopoly of Visa and Mastercard and saves on fees. That means Capital One can now handle a rising volume of payments in-house. "On debit, it was the big bang -- everything transferred," says Truist analyst Brian Foran. "On credit, it's like every year a little bit more moves to the Discover network, and a little bit moves away from Mastercard." Capital One won't move its premier travel cards to Discover's network soon, because those benefit from the overseas reach of the big two. And it won't try to lure the likes of Bank of America and Citigroup to its payment network. But it has already saved $1 billion a year in fees, estimates Foran. He calls the stock a top pick and predicts 50% upside.

Big Retail vs. Primary Healthcare

1.5 Schumps

Healthcare remains a disrupter graveyard. Remember Haven, the healthcare start-up of Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase, or Amazon Care, a telehealth venture? They were flops. Amazon resorted to buying a primary-care outfit called One Medical, and offering discounted memberships as a perk for Prime members. Walmart once had more than 50 stand-alone Walmart Health centers, with cash pricing on sick visits, tooth extractions, therapy, X-rays, and more. All closed due to staffing shortages and low margins. Walmart has retreated to doing eyeglasses and drugs in stores.

Amazon vs. FedEx and UPS

4 Schumps

Amazon has become the top U.S. parcel carrier, surpassing FedEx, UPS, and the post office. It did that by stocking its goods in distribution centers near its customers; selling fulfillment and delivery even to merchants that don't list goods on Amazon; and leasing its vans to local entrepreneurs who handle the driving. FedEx, historically an express carrier, divorced from Amazon early, in 2019, to focus on higher-value business-to-business shipments, while UPS loaded up on cheap e-commerce, which helps explain why UPS has suffered the bigger Schumping: FedEx stock has outperformed it by 110 percentage points over the past five years.