火币 HTX 首席分析师 Cloud:比特币方向待 CPI 定夺,8.1 万美元下沿或先受考验

链捕手
3 hours ago

ChainCatcher 消息,比特币自 10 月初 8.6 万美元附近回落,近几日在 8.1 万至 8.4 万美元区间震荡,同期美元走强、美债收益率维持高位。火币 HTX 首席分析师 Cloud 认为,震荡区间向下打破的可能性更大。

9 月 ISM 服务业物价支付指数升至 74.0,为 2022 年 7 月以来最高,10 月密歇根大学 1 年期通胀预期回升至 4.7%。价格分项与通胀预期同步走高,意味着本周四 CPI 超预期的概率不低;一旦兑现,年末加息定价将进一步强化,8.1 万美元下沿会先被测试,只有 CPI 低于预期,8.4 万美元上沿的突破才具备持续性。

近期芯片股下跌主要源于 AI 资本开支与硬件盈利预期的重新定价。比特币回撤幅度更小,显示其定价更偏向宏观流动性,与 AI 叙事的关联正在减弱;不过这种分化是阶段性的,一旦美元与长端利率重新主导定价,联动会迅速加强,周四晚间 CPI 公布正是最近的检验窗口。

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