盛松成:美联储利率路径仍有不确定性

第一财经
Oct 15

自2026年9月16日美联储全票通过加息25个基点至3.75%-4.00%以来,市场对美联储未来加息预期变动较大。受能源价格影响,市场对10月加息概率的定价一度接近65%左右(9月下旬),而随着最新公布的9月新增非农就业数据回落,加息预期又出现明显降温。10月14日美国9月物价数据公布后,CME“美联储观察”工具数据显示,美联储10月加息25个基点的概率从此前的20%左右提高至50%左右。我们认为...

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