凯投宏观警告:美股周期尾声信号增多 未来一年或持续回调 美债收益率将同步下行

格隆汇
Oct 16
凯投宏观首席市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在一份报告中表示,尽管近期美股抛售可能只是又一次短暂调整,但美国股市正出现越来越多处于周期尾声的迹象。他预计,未来一年左右,美股可能出现更为持续的回撤,同时伴随美国国债收益率下降。戈尔特曼指出,尽管过去两天美国通胀数据持续高企,但市场对人工智能繁荣能否持续的担忧再次升温,已经盖过了通胀数据的影响。他表示,自美伊战争爆发以来,美股与美国国债收益率首次同时大幅下跌。这种股债走势组合,恰恰符合AI繁荣开始逆转时可能出现的市场表现。

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