Oil Prices Mixed as Traders Weigh Demand Outlook, Hormuz Shipping Risks

Dow Jones
Oct 15
 
 

Oil prices were mixed Thursday as traders weighed a weaker global demand outlook and signs of recovering Middle East crude supplies against persistent shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

December Brent crude futures fell 1.1% to $104.85 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $94.10 a barrel.

Demand concerns are weighing on oil prices even as the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia continues to sustain a geopolitical risk premium, MUFG said in a note Thursday. The bank said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat following the sinking of two vessels.

Shipping risks remained elevated after two Emirati cargo ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz following attacks, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. Maritime security firms confirmed the losses, marking the first such incidents in months.

U.K. Maritime Trade Operations separately issued warnings Wednesday about two container ships struck by unidentified projectiles while traveling across the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the continuing risks, Middle East crude exports have recovered substantially. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that Gulf crude shipments rose by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million barrels a day in September, reaching more than 75% of prewar levels. Global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels a day to 102.3 million barrels a day, driven by Gulf producers.

However, the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping, the agency said.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent spot prices to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 above its previous forecast, citing continued constraints on Middle East oil flows and elevated shipping costs.

Investors are also awaiting weekly U.S. oil-inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for release later Thursday after a one-day delay because of Monday's federal holiday.

 
 

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