The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1541 ET - Oil futures rise for a third consecutive session with the market wary of continuing conflict in the Middle East and dubious about an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. "The market may remain fearful of a renewed disruption and loss of supplies whether in the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea as long as escalation risks stay high," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. The senior analyst also sees "no reason to be optimistic" about President Trump's announcement that Russia and Ukraine would refrain from striking each other's energy infrastructure. Brent settles up 1.8% at $106.65 a barrel and WTI rises 2.1% to $93.74 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1534 ET - U.S. natural gas futures give back Friday's gains as warmer weekend weather forecasts limit early-season heating demand. "The latest outlook puts above-normal temperatures across much of the country in the 11-to-15-day period, postponing a stronger seasonal call for gas," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Offshore production continued to recover after Hurricane Isaias with the Marine Minerals Administration reporting 531 million cubic feet a day offline at midday Monday, compared with 1.3 Bcf/d that was shut in Friday. Nymex natural gas settles down 1.6% at $3.167/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1417 ET - Gold futures settle lower amid U.S. dollar gains and a rise in oil futures as Middle East tensions persist. The firmer dollar and high oil prices "reinforced concerns that persistent energy-driven inflation could keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish policy path," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. The market will be looking to this week's U.S. inflation data--CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday--as well as comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh for more clarity on the interest-rate outlook, she adds. Front-month gold settles down 0.6% in New York at $4,165.80 a troy ounce and silver falls 0.9% to $60.141 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1411 ET - Russia continues to strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure, even after President Trump had said both sides would stop energy strikes Sunday. CBOT wheat futures are rising on expectations of further supply chain issues. The full grains complex is also reacting to the idea that ongoing fighting will raise risk factors for further inflation. "The Russian/Ukraine war will further constrain refinery capacity heading into winter," says AgResource in a note. "High energy prices are stoking fears of future inflation." Most-active corn is up 0.6%, soybeans fall 0.3%, and wheat is up 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1234 ET - Gold futures are lower with the U.S. dollar gaining, while oil futures rise. Strong central bank demand and inflows into gold-backed ETFs have provided support for the metal amid shifting interest-rate expectations, geopolitical tension and global market uncertainty, says Paul Hoffman, a data analyst at BestBrokers.com, in a note. Prices have responded to changing expectations around monetary policy, movements in the U.S. dollar and shifts in investor positioning, "while September's correction demonstrated how quickly sentiment can turn even during a broader period of strong demand," he adds. Gold for December delivery is off 0.6% in New York at $4,189.30 a troy ounce. Silver is down 0.8% at $60.555 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1226 ET - Gold futures are lower with the U.S. dollar gaining and oil futures rising. Strong central bank demand and inflows into gold-backed ETFs have provided support for the metal amid shifting interest-rate expectations, geopolitical tension and global market uncertainty, says Paul Hoffman, a data analyst at BestBrokers.com, in a note. Prices have responded to changing expectations around monetary policy, movements in the U.S. dollar and shifts in investor positioning, "while September's correction demonstrated how quickly sentiment can turn even during a broader period of strong demand," he adds. Gold for December delivery is off 0.6% in New York at $4,189.30 a troy ounce. Silver is down 0.8% at $60.555 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1151 ET - The hangover following the last WASDE -- which showed production above 16 billion bushels for the 2026/27 marketing year and an average yield back above 181 bushels an acre -- has derailed the positive start corn had and put it back in the negative. The most-active contract is down 0.1%. While these figures run counter to drops expected by polled analysts, how long corn stays in the downward pattern is starting to be questioned. "Not all hope is lost, as there have been plenty of bearish USDA reports in the past couple years the market faded," says Austin Schroeder of Price Futures Group in a note. "Stochastics would give the bulls that hope, as they are crossing in oversold." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1045 ET - Lean hog futures are up 0.2% in early trading, with fund traders seen adding long positions, according to data from the CFTC. In its weekly report, the CFTC says that hog futures added over 7,000 net long contracts as of Oct. 6. Traders remain net short in pork trading as of Oct. 6 with short positions exceeding longs by over 35,000 contracts. Live cattle futures are down 0.5% to just below $2.26 a pound - with traders seen reducing their exposure to commodities on the long side. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0954 ET - The impact on diesel prices after the U.S. lifted sanctions against Russian diesel will probably be limited, with most of it seen in Friday's retreat, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The most likely effect will be a slowdown in U.S. distillate exports later this month, the firm says. "But U.S. diesel exports have already tapered off in recent weeks after posting a record high in early August." U.S. diesel futures are off 0.4% at $4.7205 a gallon. Oil futures are higher with the market focused on stepped-up Houthi attacks against Saudi targets, while keeping an eye on diplomatic efforts around the conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0937 ET - Last week's WASDE report is still being pored over by analysts to start this week, with the USDA closed in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous People's Day. The report showed higher corn yields and production than anticipated by analysts, which sent corn futures plummeting. But corn is now up, rising 0.3%. "[We're] largely seeing a reversal from Friday's post-WASDE trade, with a multitude of corn tenders announced after the break lower in prices," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Soybeans fall 0.3%, and wheat is down 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0930 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower in early trading following loss of weather-driven demand at the weekend. Lost demand from Hurricane Isaias is recovering, while shut-in supply may take several days to fully return, Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. "We saw gas pop higher late on Friday on news around the impacts from the storm, but much of that support has tempered back out," he says. "We should return to a fundamental range between $3.07 and $3.17 with some upside risk if any damage at a key offshore facility is discovered." Nymex natural gas is off 2.3% at $3.146/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0630 ET - Palm oil ended higher despite MPOB data showing end-September stocks in Malaysia rising 25% on month to 3.5 million tons. Inventory reached historic highs at the end of last month, driven by strong production, but it is expected to be fleeting, Citi Research analyst Gan Huan Wen writes in a note. Lower yields due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, along with a low production season from January, will deplete inventories and drive crude palm oil prices higher, Gan adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery rose 46 ringgit to 4,638 ringgit a ton.