【券商聚焦】华泰证券:上游资源、必选消费景气改善 10月行业配置向低位倾斜

金吾财讯
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金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,9月全行业景气指数小幅回落,大类板块中,上游资源、必选消费景气改善。行业层面,除AI链、涨价链和出海制造延续景气外,地产及部分地产链景气有企稳回升迹象,K型分化有望“扩散式”收敛:1)AI链:硬件端PCB、半导体设备、服务器景气爬坡,应用端游戏景气上行;2)地产及地产链相关:房地产、装修建材、普钢、建筑景气有企稳迹象,小家电、白酒景气回升;3)涨价链:煤炭、石油石化、航运港口、部分化工品、造纸景气持续改善;4)制造:航海装备、商用车、风电等景气上行。

配置上,近期市场调整后性价比有所上升,但高油价下利率上行压力仍构成估值约束,随着三季报预告披露期开启,继续沿盈利、低拥挤和低波动再平衡:1)科技链关注订单和交付确定性较高的光通信、PCB/MLCC等;2)景气和筹码存在配置差,或政策和基本面有共振催化的方向,包括创新药、部分化工品、航运、船舶、部分地产链等;3)红利继续作为底仓。定量层面,9月行业轮动组合收益-4.8%,相对全A超额0.6%,性价比组合优于景气组合;10月模型推荐计算机设备、化学制品、旅游及景区、游戏、医疗器械、白酒、小家电、装修建材、饮料乳品、家居用品,较上月新增白酒、小家电、装修建材等,整体配置上向低位品种倾斜。

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