金吾财讯 | 美国银行知名策略师迈克尔·哈特内特在最新发布的报告中指出，随着美联储货币政策的不确定性上升、美国中期选举临近以及人工智能（AI）交易带来的持续波动，市场在未来三至四周内将由避险情绪主导，此前夏季的“极度牛市”行情已告一段落。报告提到，全球债券市场抛售使经通胀调整后的实际收益率升至3%，叠加高企的能源价格与具有粘性的通胀压力，市场环境愈发严峻。美银团队给出了比市场主流更为鹰派的研判，预计美联储或将在10月会议上加息以重塑通胀治理信誉。尽管科技基金在2026年创下年化1960亿美元的资金流入纪录，但投资者对AI领域大规模资本支出的合理性及回报率日趋担忧。美银建议投资者降低科技股敞口，转而增加对小盘股、房地产投资信托基金（REITs）以及受益于收益率顶部阶段的非必需消费品板块的配置。
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