【券商聚焦】华泰证券:资本开支或不再是AI资产单一的定价锚

金吾财讯
Oct 15

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,9月中旬以来,全球AI资产表现分化加剧。产业方面关注:1)OpenAI ARR低于市场预期,CSP Capex仍在上修、但增速放缓,截至26Q2美股云厂商Capex边际产出降至1x,市场对“循环融资”的担忧上升;2)光互连从技术展示阶段进入城域网与长途网建设阶段,但据Reuters,FCC拟议限制令,对市场情绪仍有扰动;3)模型继续侧重同价提效,Claude Haiku 5.5定位高吞吐的轻量任务,单位任务成本的竞争从国产模型蔓延至海外模型;4)应用层付费工作流扩张,此外Meta于9月8日发布首款Agent产品Muse,成为现象级产品,或标志着智能体商业化变现拐点。整体来看,市场关注点从“需求确定性”向“回报弹性”切换,资本开支或不再是AI资产单一的定价锚。配置上,短期全球利率上行压力仍是AI资产分母端的核心约束,随着AI产业趋势二阶导阶段性拐点邻近,新叙事出现前市场对分子端确定性的要求或显著上升。当前AI交易或从“堆算力”的粗放贝塔,进入“沿瓶颈与现金流确定性选股”的阿尔法阶段,建议关注三季报业绩能见度较高的PCB、服务器、液冷、电源等,继续规避纯题材和高估值品种。

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