花旗:油价回落几乎是美债收益率触顶的必要前提条件

格隆汇
Oct 20
花旗最新发布的量化跨资产研报显示,国际原油价格回落几乎是美债收益率触顶的必要前提条件。花旗认为,若地缘政治局势出现积极转机(特别是美国中期选举后),将显著提升油价见顶机率,进而为美债收益率的持续回落创造关键条件。基于多空讯号冲突,花旗周期模型已切换至周期末段防御模式。花旗强调,在美债收益率峰值讯号未明、油价与通胀预期尚未决定性转跌前,对美债持中性观望而非盲目做多,是当前地缘风险常态化下最审慎的策略。

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