质量因子新高指引布局 大摩Wilson:股市调整尾声将至

格隆汇
Oct 19
摩根士丹利(MS.US)首席股票策略师MichaelWilson发出明确信号,持续数月的股市内部调整正接近尾声,投资者应做好增加风险敞口的准备。这一判断建立在质量因子突破新高、盈利修正分化加剧以及估值已完成大幅消化三重信号之上,为市场提供了难得的布局窗口。分化格局正是市场从早周期向中周期过渡的典型特征。Wilson表示,"我们建议投资者做好准备,无论是迎接一次快速的修复,还是承受更缓慢地延续至11月的下行压力,因为在我们看来,届时将是增加风险(仓位)而非回避风险的时机。"与此同时,高盛(GS.US)策略师注意到投资者仓位正趋于防御,摩根大通(JPM.US)则认为债券收益率企稳将对股市形成"重要支撑"。 质量因子突破,中周期过渡信号明确。摩根士丹利(MS.US)的质量因子综合指数已升至52周新高,自8月中旬以来累计上涨约6%,而同期等权重标普500指数下跌近4%。Wilson认为,这一背离是市场从早周期低质量股票领涨向中周期高质量股票主导切换的清晰印证。盈利修正数据进一步强化了这一判断。高质量与低质量股票之间的盈利修正广度差距已扩大至约10%,为2010年以来第二高水平。历史数据显示,当该差距处于历史最高五分位时,高质量股票在随后12个月内平均跑赢低质量股票约8%,而所有时期的平均超额收益仅约1%。

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